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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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