Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
