Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
